The US economy faces growing uncertainty as a government shutdown halts the release of crucial economic data. Policymakers, businesses, and financial institutions have been operating without key information for nearly a month. Reports that track employment, trade, retail sales, and GDP have been delayed. The pause will deepen on Thursday when gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the July–September quarter are expected. These numbers measure the growth of the world’s largest economy and are critical for economic planning. Some federal staff have been recalled to release inflation data needed to calculate Social Security payments. However, most other reports remain on hold as Congress struggles to reach a compromise. Lawmakers from both parties continue to blame each other, leaving no clear path to ending the shutdown. Millions of Americans are now facing potential interruptions in food aid. Analysts warn that the data blackout could slow hiring and reduce investment. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said businesses are eager for government figures to understand whether the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates. “The time of year is critical for organizations finalizing their 2026 budgets,” Long added. Companies are weighing whether next year will see growth, a slowdown, or a recession. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could cost the economy up to $14 billion. Economists like Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics predict that firms will act cautiously. Uncertainty from trade policies, including tariffs, already complicates business planning. “Companies may reduce hiring until they see data indicating stable or increasing demand,” Martin said. Financial markets also rely on this information to guide investments and trading decisions. Should the shutdown continue through mid-November, as prediction markets expect, delayed data may not be released until December. Goldman Sachs warns that such delays could distort both October and November economic figures. Heather Long noted that if the shutdown extends too long, October data could be permanently lost because it was never collected. Government workers may attempt to reconstruct missing information once operations resume. However, delays can reduce reliability, creating so-called “tainted data” due to memory errors or incomplete reporting. Economists stress that private sector data cannot replace official government figures, which remain the gold standard. Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, highlighted the uncertainty surrounding labor supply and employment trends. Estimates vary on how many people have left the country since early 2025. Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House emphasized that underlying economic stress persists despite recent GDP growth. She also noted that the shutdown affects consumer behavior, especially among government employees. “If you’re uncertain about your next paycheck, discretionary spending like dining out or travel may be delayed,” House said. These delays can have ripple effects, weakening demand across sectors of the economy. The ongoing shutdown underscores the fragility of the US economic system when key data are unavailable. Experts warn that continued delays in federal reporting could complicate monetary policy decisions, hinder business planning, and increase uncertainty for households and investors alike. With Congress at an impasse, the US economy is navigating a period of unprecedented opacity. Analysts and business leaders are calling for a swift resolution to restore clarity and confidence in economic decision-making.