Oil prices rose modestly on Wednesday as traders focused on peace talks in Ukraine and U.S. plans in Venezuela. Brent crude traded just below $63 a barrel, up 0.4%, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $59. Markets are weighing geopolitical concerns against expectations of a growing oil supply next year. U.S. President Donald Trump said a meeting between his envoy and Russian President Vladimir Putin went “reasonably good,” though he acknowledged that a peace deal remains uncertain. Investors are watching the situation closely, as any progress or setback in Ukraine could influence energy markets. At the same time, Trump reiterated that the United States will soon begin strikes against drug cartels on land in Venezuela. U.S. forces have been increasing their presence in the region. This situation adds a risk premium to oil prices. However, it only partially offsets expectations of a global supply surplus. Analysts expect this surplus to reach record levels in 2026. “The Venezuela situation warrants caution,” said Gao Jian, an analyst at Qisheng Futures in Shandong, China. Still, he noted that supply fundamentals continue to weigh on crude. Overall, the market faces bearish pressure due to high production levels and the return of idled output from OPEC+ members. Other oil-producing nations are also boosting supply, further challenging price gains. Earlier this year, strong Chinese purchases had supported oil prices. Yet experts now see demand in China remaining subdued until at least mid-2026. Janet Hong, Chief Executive Officer of Hengli Petrochemical International, said the market should not expect a major increase in buying from the country in the near term. “No matter how much demand is going to come in, you just have a lot of supply,” said Saad Rahim, Chief Economist at Trafigura Group, speaking at the Financial Times Commodities Asia Summit in Singapore. He added that the path of least resistance for prices is likely downward, reflecting continued global output growth. U.S. crude inventories are also rising. Government data released Wednesday showed an increase of 574,000 barrels in stockpiles last week. Gasoline and distillate inventories also grew. These numbers suggest that supply is strong, even as seasonal demand patterns shift. Despite the supply pressures, oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments. Any sign of escalation in Venezuela or progress in Ukraine could temporarily push prices higher. Traders are balancing these short-term risks with the longer-term outlook for oversupply. Analysts note that OPEC+ decisions will continue to play a central role. Earlier this year, the organisation cut production to stabilise prices, but many of those cuts are being reversed. Countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are gradually restoring output. Meanwhile, non-OPEC producers like the United States, Brazil, and Canada are also increasing production. For the rest of 2025, oil prices may continue to fluctuate. Modest gains could occur if geopolitical risks rise, but broader trends suggest downward pressure from oversupply. Market watchers are keeping an eye on inventories, U.S. policy announcements, and any developments in Europe or Latin America that could shift supply or demand. In summary, oil prices showed a slight increase as traders consider a mix of geopolitical and supply factors. Peace talks in Ukraine offer potential for market stability, while U.S. action in Venezuela adds caution. However, rising global crude supplies and expanding inventories in the United States continue to limit significant gains. Overall, the market faces a complex balance of risks and fundamentals as it heads toward 2026.