The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history is nearing its end, but its economic effects are being felt nationwide. About 1.25 million federal workers have gone without pay since October 1. Thousands of flights have been canceled, government contracts delayed, and some food aid payments interrupted. While federal workers are set to receive back pay once the government reopens, not all lost activity can be recovered. Flights that were canceled may not be rescheduled, restaurant meals missed, and some postponed purchases may never happen. Experts say the shutdown’s record length has caused disruptions that will leave a lasting mark. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said, “Short-lived shutdowns are usually invisible in the data, but this one will leave a lasting mark, both because of its record length and the growing disruptions to welfare programs and travel.” The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the six-week shutdown will cut fourth-quarter economic growth by about 1.5 percentage points. That is roughly half the growth of the third quarter. The reopening is expected to boost growth in the first quarter of next year by 2.2 percentage points, but the CBO projects that around $11 billion in economic activity will be permanently lost. This shutdown exceeds the previous record, which lasted 35 days in 2018-2019 but only partially affected the government. Unlike that period, this closure has had a full effect on federal operations, adding to challenges such as high inflation, slow hiring, and ongoing business uncertainty. Despite these pressures, most economists do not predict a recession. About 650,000 federal employees were unable to work during the shutdown, pushing the unemployment rate in October up by about 0.4 percentage points. When the government reopens, these workers will return to the employed ranks. Large concentrations of federal employees are found in areas such as Washington, D.C., Virginia, Maryland, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Alaska. Federal contractors, estimated at over 5 million, do not automatically receive back pay, which further compounds economic uncertainty. The shutdown’s effects are evident in multiple sectors. Federal workers have lost about $16 billion in wages, reducing spending at stores, restaurants, and on holiday travel. Airlines canceled over 7,500 flights in recent weeks as the Federal Aviation Administration adjusted staffing due to air traffic controllers missing paychecks. This disruption is estimated to have cost the travel industry $2.6 billion, with hotels, restaurants, and taxi services also seeing lower business. Consumer sentiment has dropped sharply. The University of Michigan reported the index at 50.4, a three-year low and nearly 30% lower than a year ago. Americans expressed growing pessimism about personal finances and business conditions, which could slow spending further. Federal spending has also been curtailed. Equipment purchases and contract awards, including for the Department of Defense, NASA, and Homeland Security, slowed dramatically. Estimates suggest $800 million in contracts were at risk of not being awarded each day of the shutdown. Additionally, $8 billion in SNAP food aid for 42 million recipients was delayed, creating financial hardship for many households. Congress’s reopening plan includes funding for these benefits. The shutdown has disrupted economic data reporting. Unemployment, inflation, and retail data — critical for Federal Reserve decisions — have been delayed, making interest rate decisions more uncertain. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the shutdown clouded the picture of the economy, warning that a December rate cut was no longer guaranteed. Less predictable interest rates may reduce borrowing and spending, further affecting growth. Overall, the US shutdown economic effect is broad and uneven. While back pay and resumed operations will recover some losses, billions in economic activity will not return. Travel disruptions, delayed contracts, and reduced consumer confidence mean the economy will feel the shutdown’s impact for months, even after federal offices reopen.