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Apr 3, 2025 4:52 pm
Global Media Network
Oil Prices Fall on US Supply and OPEC Report
Oil prices continued to slide on Thursday after new data showed rising crude inventories in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. The decline follows concerns that global supply may be higher than current fuel demand. Brent crude fell slightly by three cents, or 0.03%, to $62.69 a barrel in early trading, extending losses from the previous session, which saw a drop of 3.8%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped five cents, or 0.09%, to $58.44 a barrel, following Wednesday’s 4.2% decline. Industry sources citing the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending November 7. Gasoline and distillate inventories, however, declined slightly, according to the API figures. The price drop accelerated on Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly report. The report indicated that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in 2026. This forecast marked a shift from earlier projections, which had predicted a supply deficit. “OPEC’s signal of a supply surplus released previously pent-up bearish sentiment,” said Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Securities. “Combined with U.S. inventory data, it pushed oil prices lower into Thursday.” The projected supply surplus comes as OPEC+ — a coalition of OPEC members and allied producers including Russia — continues to increase output. Analysts note that this expansion in production may keep oil markets oversupplied in the near term. Later on Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release its official inventory data. Ahead of the report, a Reuters poll of nine analysts suggested that crude inventories rose by roughly two million barrels last week. Additional reports have reinforced bearish sentiment. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected higher U.S. oil production this year than previously estimated. Global oil inventories are also expected to grow through 2026, as production continues to outpace demand for petroleum fuels. The market structure for WTI crude has also signaled caution. On Wednesday, the front-month WTI contract traded below the futures contract for delivery in six months, creating a contango. Contango occurs when near-term prices are lower than future prices, often indicating expectations of excess supply or weaker immediate demand. On Thursday, the WTI front-month contract was at an 18-cent discount to the six-month futures, highlighting continued market concern over oversupply. Market watchers say that the combination of rising U.S. stockpiles and OPEC’s surplus forecast has created uncertainty for oil traders. Many are now pricing in the possibility that crude prices may remain under pressure well into next year, especially if production levels continue to rise faster than consumption. Oil importers and refiners may benefit from lower prices in the short term. However, sustained low prices could weigh on exporting countries, particularly those that rely heavily on petroleum revenues for national budgets. Investors will now turn their attention to the EIA’s official inventory report and future OPEC statements for guidance on whether the current oversupply trend is likely to persist or ease in the coming months. For now, the outlook remains cautious, with analysts monitoring both U.S. production trends and global demand shifts closely. Any unexpected changes in either supply or demand could trigger price volatility in the months ahead.
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