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Apr 3, 2025 4:52 pm
Global Media Network
US Price Outlook Tariffs Worry Finance Chiefs
Finance leaders across the United States expect prices to keep rising next year, with tariffs still one of their biggest worries. A new national survey shows that many businesses see higher costs ahead and plan to pass much of that burden on to customers. The survey, released on Wednesday, found that corporate finance chiefs expect prices to rise by more than 4% on average next year. This outlook may raise concern for policymakers, who are trying to bring inflation back down to a long-term goal of 2%. Business leaders say their costs are still much higher than before. Many firms report that raw materials, shipping, and other inputs remain expensive. To protect profits, companies say they will raise prices where possible. This approach, according to economists, could keep inflation higher for longer. A senior regional central bank official said businesses clearly feel cost pressure. He explained that firms will try to protect their margins. That effort creates steady upward pressure on prices. He added that many survey responses suggest these pressures could last well into 2026. This trend raises concerns about how inflation will behave over the next year. The timing of the survey is important. Policymakers are still waiting for fresh inflation data after a long gap. The most recent official reading showed inflation running at 2.8% on an annual basis. That level is well above the central bank’s target and follows nearly five years of elevated inflation. Views inside the central bank remain divided. Some officials believe inflation risks are easing. Others think price pressures could last longer. One governor said he is not very worried about inflation. He expects it to start falling in the coming months as the effect of higher tariffs fades. He also pointed to weaker job growth as a sign that wage pressure is easing. Recent labor data shows the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest level in more than four years. Slower hiring may reduce demand and help cool prices. Because of this, some policymakers believe interest rates can continue to fall at a steady pace. Last week, the central bank cut interest rates for the third meeting in a row. However, it also signaled a possible pause. The decision revealed sharp differences among policymakers. Some argued for a larger cut, while others opposed any cut at all. These splits show how uncertain the outlook remains. During recent months, official data has been limited. Because of that, surveys like this one have become more important. Policymakers now rely more on business sentiment to judge where the economy is heading. The survey included responses from 548 finance chiefs. It covered companies of all sizes, from very small firms to large employers. The results showed confidence falling for both individual companies and the broader economy. An index tracking optimism dropped compared to the previous quarter and remains below its recent peak. This weaker mood contrasts with another recent executive poll. That separate survey, focused on very large firms, showed confidence rising to its highest level in several years. While that poll did not ask about pricing plans, many executives still listed cost control as their biggest challenge. Inflation ranked as one of the top external risks. Despite concerns, the overall outlook remains modestly positive. Finance chiefs expect slow but steady growth in 2026. The typical firm plans to raise employment by about 1.7%. Economic growth is expected to be just under 2%. Hiring plans remain cautious. Only about 40% of firms say they are adding new jobs. Nearly one in five say they are not hiring at all. A smaller share expects to reduce staff. Tariffs remain the leading concern for finance leaders. While worry has eased since earlier this year, trade risks still rank at the top. Many firms believe tariffs will push costs higher and force price increases. On average, companies expect prices to rise by about 4.2% next year. This is close to the increase they expect in unit costs. Revenue growth is forecast at nearly 8%, slightly higher than this year. Economists involved in the survey say the message is clear. Many firms expect strong price growth to continue. About half of the respondents plan to raise prices by at least 3.5%. The US price outlook tariffs picture suggests inflation may stay stubborn. While some pressures may ease, business plans point to continued price increases. That reality could make it harder for policymakers to reach their inflation goal anytime soon.
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