Donald Trump has positioned himself as the Republican voice on the cost of living, frequently declaring that inflation is under control. A review of his recent economic speeches, however, shows a pattern of repeated claims that conflict with Americans’ daily experiences. Since December, Trump has delivered five major speeches on the economy. In them, he claimed nearly 20 times that inflation had been beaten and stated roughly 30 times that prices were falling. Yet, the cost of essentials like ground beef and coffee has risen 18% and 29% respectively since he returned to office a year ago. Much of Trump’s speaking time diverges from the economy, veering into immigration, foreign policy, and other controversies. Analysts say this approach risks creating a credibility gap for both him and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterms, when control of Congress will be at stake. “He can’t continue to make claims that are demonstrably false, particularly in competitive House or Senate districts,” said Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist. Another source close to the White House added that Trump needs to personally visit key districts to better connect on affordability issues. A White House spokesman, Kush Desai, emphasized that Trump’s focus on illegal immigration ties into his broader economic argument, citing the strain on public services, housing, wages, and business activity. Desai also noted that Trump continues to frame his agenda as fixing the “economic mess” left by his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden. Trump’s speeches reveal a pattern of meandering off his economic message. In five hours of speaking, roughly two were spent on unrelated topics, from international affairs to cultural disputes. Notably, he criticized Somali Americans in Minnesota and Representative Ilhan Omar, and discussed issues including men in women’s sports, Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, and military recruitment. Trump’s approach, sometimes called “the weave,” has raised concerns among GOP strategists that his message on inflation and cost-of-living relief may be diluted. During a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he spent nearly half his time on unrelated topics before returning to domestic economic points. While Trump occasionally notes falling prices for items like eggs and gasoline—eggs dropped roughly 21% in December from the prior year—overall food costs have continued to rise. Average hourly earnings have grown only 1.1% year-over-year, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in December from 4% at the start of his term. Trump has also promoted policy solutions in his speeches. These include recent tax cuts, elimination of certain taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security payments, proposals to reduce mortgage interest rates and housing prices, and deals with insurers to lower prescription drug costs. Economists say these measures could benefit households in the months ahead, but few are likely to significantly affect the cost of living before November. Some proposals, such as capping credit card interest rates at 10%, may even limit access to credit for lower-income families. Despite these challenges, some Republicans argue that Trump’s messaging differentiates him from Democrats. Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, stated that Trump and GOP candidates are offering solutions to help working families, highlighting the contrast with Democratic policies. Polls reflect the mixed public response. A Reuters/Ipsos survey from January 25 found that 35% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, a slight increase from 33% in December, but still below his initial 42% rating a year ago. Trump’s repeated claims that inflation is beaten and prices are falling, juxtaposed with continued cost pressures on everyday Americans, underscore the challenge he faces in convincing voters that his economic policies have delivered meaningful relief. GOP strategists warn that refining this message may be crucial for maintaining credibility in a competitive election year.