UK food inflation could surge to 9% this year, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming weeks, trade bodies have warned. The Food and Drink Federation, representing 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, said prices are expected to rise by at least 9% in 2026, nearly three times higher than the 3.2% forecast made before the Middle East conflict. Chancellor Rachel Reeves met supermarket leaders on Wednesday to discuss measures to limit the impact of rising costs on prices at the till. Global markets rallied on remarks from Donald Trump suggesting the war could end in “two to three weeks,” with the FTSE 100 closing 1.8% higher, its largest single-day gain in almost a year. Oil briefly fell to $98.35 a barrel before rising back near $102. Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at the FDF, said the industry is already facing large increases in energy, transport, and packaging costs, alongside supply chain disruptions. “The current situation is unprecedented and hard to predict. Given the scale and speed of these cost increases, and despite companies’ best efforts not to pass price increases on, it’s clear that food inflation is going to rise in the months ahead,” she said. The 9% inflation forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens to cargo traffic within two to three weeks and that major energy facilities, including oil, gas, and fertiliser sites, return to normal within a year. Retail leaders from Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer, Aldi, and Lidl met Reeves and Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds at No 11 Downing Street. They requested government action to ease cost pressures, including support with energy bills and delaying new regulatory fees on packaging, unhealthy food, and employment rights. A government spokesperson described the meeting as “positive,” saying businesses and ministers agreed to explore ways to ease the cost of living for consumers and strengthen supply chains. One attendee called the discussion “very constructive,” highlighting government willingness to help with energy costs, which affect the entire supply chain. UK farmers and producers have warned that without government support for rising energy bills, shortages of domestic tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, and aubergines are possible. Simon Conway, chair of the British Tomato Growers’ Association, said growers earn most of their income in the last weeks of the season. “No one can absorb these kind of cost shocks. They have to be worked through with retailers,” he said. Many businesses, which typically fix energy contracts from April, will face steep rises in costs from increased standing charges. The BTGA and other food producers are lobbying to be classed as “energy-intensive users,” a designation that would reduce bills. Without this support, Conway warned, “businesses will fail.” Energy bills are only part of the challenge. Producers also face rising costs for packaging and fuel to transport goods to stores. Conway noted that the effect of these cost increases is expected to hit toward the end of summer. Retailers are mindful of previous shortages, such as those in early 2023, when fresh produce ran low. Household energy bills are projected to fall until July but then are expected to rise again. The government is under growing pressure to provide support, though so far any aid is likely to be targeted to the most vulnerable households. Reeves told the BBC the government is exploring ways to support people based on household income. She stopped short of promising cuts to fuel duty or VAT on petrol, saying that excessive price reductions could increase overall inflation, interest rates, and taxes. The combination of rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory pressures means UK food inflation is likely to continue climbing. Government and industry leaders are now working to find measures to prevent shortages and keep prices more stable for consumers in 2026.