The US economy and stock market have remained strong for years, even with constant warnings of trouble ahead. Despite signs like an inverted yield curve, higher unemployment, and weak consumer confidence, growth has held up. But new data suggest this resilience may not last. Many analysts now believe that a US recession could be near, raising concerns about how long the bull market can continue. Much of the strength in recent years came from the artificial intelligence boom that began after the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. The chatbot’s explosive success set off a global rush to invest in AI. Companies poured billions into research, infrastructure, and partnerships to avoid falling behind in the race. In 2024, total AI investments in the US reached $109.1 billion, according to Stanford University’s AI Index Report. That is more than triple the average annual amount invested between 2013 and 2023. The surge in spending offset weakness in areas such as housing, manufacturing, and real estate. For a time, AI became the main driver of US economic growth. This enthusiasm fueled massive gains in tech stocks. Nvidia, a major chipmaker for AI systems, soared more than twelvefold since late 2022. Tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta also doubled in value. Their strong performance lifted major stock indexes, even as other industries lagged. Recently, however, investors have begun to question whether this AI-driven boom is sustainable. Companies have poured hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, but so far, the financial returns have been small. Research from MIT shows that 95 percent of companies using AI reported no profit improvement. A separate McKinsey study found that most firms saw only minor cost savings and minimal revenue gains. If these trends continue, tech companies may slow their AI spending. This could hurt AI startups and weaken one of the biggest supports for the US economy. Some investors worry that AI growth may be built on what they call “circular” funding loops. Reports suggest that Nvidia plans to invest billions in OpenAI’s data centers, while OpenAI is set to buy large quantities of Nvidia chips. OpenAI has also signed multi-billion-dollar deals with AMD, Oracle, and CoreWeave. Critics say this kind of cross-investment may inflate the market without generating real economic demand. Despite its popularity, OpenAI remains unprofitable. Revenues are expected to grow to around $13 billion this year, but losses could rise to $8 billion. Bloomberg projects the company will not be cash-flow positive until 2029. Analysts warn that if AI firms fail to deliver results, their valuations could drop sharply, threatening the broader tech sector. Outside technology, the rest of the economy is showing more traditional signs of stress. Job growth has slowed sharply, averaging just 75,000 per month in 2025, down from 168,000 last year. The Federal Reserve cut rates in September to support growth, but rising tariffs have renewed fears of inflation. American households are also feeling the strain. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies have climbed to their highest level since the financial crisis. The manufacturing sector continues to contract, with exports and production hit by weak global demand. Business investment remains low as companies delay projects amid policy uncertainty. As a result, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.8 percent this year, down from 2.8 percent in 2024. Financial markets are starting to reflect these pressures. Corporate debt defaults are rising, with several large bankruptcies in recent months. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that these could be early signs of deeper credit problems. He compared the situation to spotting “one cockroach,” implying more hidden risks may soon emerge. Although stock prices remain high, analysts caution that markets rarely continue to rise once a recession begins. Tech stocks, in particular, may be vulnerable to sudden corrections if growth expectations fall. With household debt rising and business activity slowing, investors are becoming more cautious. While no one can predict exactly when the cycle will turn, many experts say it is time to prepare. With valuations stretched, economic momentum fading, and key risks building, the US economy and stock market could face more volatility in the months ahead.